> Hi, so who all is on the list so far?
I am. I figure this is *the* place to be when the new modem code comes
out this week.
> Our current problem is I have to run 2 modem banks. One with Pm 3s and
> another with a Max to handle all the calls that the PM 3 can't handle.
Same here.. except we went with a 3com box. It is nice to watch the
complaints go away. :-)
> Now how is DSL going to affect "us modem guys"? Soutwestern Bell is
> AGRESSIVELY pushing DSL. It seems that if I wanna offer DSL, all I need is
> an ATM switch connected to their cloud.
Ameritech only has DSL (in Michigan at least) in Royal Oak and Ann Arbor.
That covers about 1/50th of the local calling region of just the metro
detroit area and the suburbs. They say they will blanket the area soon,
but they haven't yet... and it's been around a year so far. TCI offers
Cable modems here... and we've lost around 8 to 10 customers to cable
modems in the past 6 months. One came back because the cable modem
sucked.
> How long do you guys think modems will be around?
Funny that you should ask this. I've been wondering this myself for a
long time... actually, more precisely, I've been wondering about the
future of the small to medium ISP... and how we can compete with the big
players in the future. I spent about 6 months thinking about this.. and
it bugged the heck out of me. Yesterday, believe it or not, I finally
decided that I was making too big a deal out of all this, and that we
should continue to expand just as normal.
For one thing, there are like 6800 ISP's (last time I checked) in North
America alone. I really doubt that these 6800 companies are just going to
bow out and call it quits one day all at once. ISP's are resourceful
people. If there aren't enough "modem" users left for all of us, we'll
figure out ways to offer other services and use new technologies. You'll
just watch the whole business model change at some point anyway. Also,
everyone is still claiming massive growth... I've not talked to any ISP's
that aren't growing in one way or another. Even if it's very slowly, they
at least have more customers now than they did 6 months ago.
I've talked to various CLEC's that are planning to do things to help the
smaller ISP's compete. Like offering ADSL services, and reselling those
services to customers colocating in the CLEC's offices. Buying bandwidth
a user at a time... instead of having to eat an entire $30K/month DS3
bill when you don't have enough people to pay for it, etc. The market
will change over time... and we will change with it.
As for modems themselves... although the market may shrink 50-75% over
the next 5-10 years, there will *always* be people who want/need modem
access. Around here, cable modems are at least $40/month or more... and
people complain to me about paying $20! Also... you can't use a cable
modem at the office... and you can't use DSL at the office unless your
company has a DSL line... and yet phone lines are in *every* office
across North America. Same with hotels, as an example. People who use
laptops, or people who travel, or people who don't use it much, or just
want email, or are just plain cheap... or are on low-income budgets...
those people will all still want/need inexpensive modem access... no
matter how slow it is. Modems themselves will be around for at least 10
years more, I would think. Until high speed access is available everwhere
(like wireless or something like that) for $20/month or less.
On a plus side... we've noticed (and a couple competitors have told us the
same thing on their side) that the people who seem to switch to the cable
modems are the power users that hang on the line all the time.
This is a huge benefit. If we can lose the 10% of our customers that are
heavy-usage to cable modems, and keep our 90% that use 2 hours a day or
less, that's great for us! We could actually raise our user to modem
ratio without causing busy signals... and maybe some day lower our prices
again. :-)
Finally... there is still like 60%+ of the population that are NOT on the
internet yet... so that's still a large untapped market. Most of those
people are most likely computer illiterate, or else they would already be
on the internet. That means they're most likely to use the internet for a
very short time per day, or just use it for email to talk to grandkids
across the country. If an elderly couple on a fixed income only wants to
email their grandkids, they don't want to pay $40/month for internet
access, no matter how fast it is.
-- Nick
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Nick Seraphin nick@eaglequest.com
President http://www.eaglequest.com/
EagleQuest, Inc. (248) 650-4700
Internet Access Services Rochester, Michigan
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